Skip to content
Saturday 7 April 2018, 19:00 Stadio Paolo Mazza Full time
1–1
HT 1–0
21% 26% 53%
Home win
20.6%
Draw
26.3%
Away win
53.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Spal 20.6% 4.86
Draw 26.3% 3.80
Atalanta 53.1% 1.88

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.3% 1.10
Under 0.5 8.7% 11.44
Over 1.5 72.4% 1.38
Under 1.5 27.6% 3.62
Over 2.5 46.2% 2.17
Under 2.5 53.8% 1.86
Over 3.5 24.7% 4.05
Under 3.5 75.3% 1.33
Over 4.5 11.2% 8.95
Under 4.5 88.8% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.6% 2.06
No 51.4% 1.94

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Spal / Draw 46.9% 2.13
Spal / Atalanta 73.7% 1.36
Draw / Atalanta 79.4% 1.26

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.7
12.2
10.4
5.6
2.3
0.7
1
6.6
12.5
9.5
5.1
2.1
0.7
2
3.3
5.4
4.3
2.3
0.9
0.3
3
1.0
1.6
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
4
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Spal goals. Columns: Atalanta goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.