Monday 17 September 2018, 21:30
Stadio Paolo Mazza
Full time
24%
29%
47%
Home win
23.9%
Draw
28.9%
Away win
47.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal | 23.9% | 4.18 | — | — |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.46 | — | — |
| Atalanta | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 89.2% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 10.8% | 9.27 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 32.3% | 3.09 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 40.4% | 2.48 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 20.1% | 4.99 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 8.4% | 11.95 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 91.6% | 1.09 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
| No | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal / Draw | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Spal / Atalanta | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Draw / Atalanta | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
10.8
|
13.2
|
9.7
|
4.5
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
| 1 |
8.4
|
13.5
|
8.8
|
4.1
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
| 2 |
4.2
|
5.8
|
4.0
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
1.3
|
1.8
|
1.2
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2020
Atalanta
1-2
Spal
Aug 2019
Spal
2-3
Atalanta
Feb 2019
Atalanta
2-1
Spal
Apr 2018
Spal
1-1
Atalanta
Nov 2017
Atalanta
1-1
Spal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.