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Sunday 20 May 2018, 19:00 Stadio Paolo Mazza Full time
3–1
HT 1–0
33% 28% 39%
Home win
32.8%
Draw
27.9%
Away win
39.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Spal 32.8% 3.04
Draw 27.9% 3.59
Sampdoria 39.3% 2.55

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.8% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.2% 12.13
Over 1.5 73.8% 1.35
Under 1.5 26.2% 3.82
Over 2.5 47.9% 2.09
Under 2.5 52.1% 1.92
Over 3.5 26.2% 3.82
Under 3.5 73.8% 1.36
Over 4.5 12.1% 8.24
Under 4.5 87.9% 1.14

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.4% 1.87
No 46.6% 2.14

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Spal / Draw 60.7% 1.65
Spal / Sampdoria 72.1% 1.39
Draw / Sampdoria 67.2% 1.49

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.2
9.5
7.0
3.2
1.1
0.3
1
8.4
13.3
8.6
3.9
1.3
0.4
2
5.6
7.7
5.2
2.4
0.8
0.2
3
2.3
3.1
2.1
1.0
0.3
0.1
4
0.7
1.0
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Spal goals. Columns: Sampdoria goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.