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Saturday 21 April 2018, 16:00 Stadio Paolo Mazza Full time
0–3
HT 0–1
15% 24% 61%
Home win
14.6%
Draw
24.0%
Away win
61.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Spal 14.6% 6.83
Draw 24.0% 4.16
AS Roma 61.3% 1.63

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.4% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.6% 11.58
Over 1.5 72.4% 1.38
Under 1.5 27.6% 3.63
Over 2.5 46.3% 2.16
Under 2.5 53.7% 1.86
Over 3.5 24.8% 4.03
Under 3.5 75.2% 1.33
Over 4.5 11.2% 8.91
Under 4.5 88.8% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 44.4% 2.25
No 55.6% 1.80

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Spal / Draw 38.7% 2.59
Spal / AS Roma 76.0% 1.32
Draw / AS Roma 85.4% 1.17

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.6
13.6
12.6
7.5
3.3
1.2
1
5.3
11.3
9.5
5.6
2.5
0.9
2
2.2
4.0
3.5
2.1
0.9
0.3
3
0.6
1.0
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.1
4
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Spal goals. Columns: AS Roma goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.