Saturday 31 March 2018, 16:00
Luigi Ferraris
Full time
41%
32%
27%
Home win
41.0%
Draw
31.9%
Away win
27.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
| Draw | 31.9% | 3.14 | — | — |
| Spal | 27.2% | 3.68 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86.0% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 14.0% | 7.13 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 39.2% | 2.55 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 33.0% | 3.03 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 14.7% | 6.80 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 85.3% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 5.5% | 18.25 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 94.5% | 1.06 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40.7% | 2.46 | — | — |
| No | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa / Draw | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Genoa / Spal | 68.1% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Draw / Spal | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
14.0
|
10.8
|
5.1
|
1.5
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
14.3
|
14.1
|
5.8
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
8.7
|
7.6
|
3.3
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
3.3
|
2.9
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.9
|
0.8
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jul 2020
Genoa
2-0
Spal
Nov 2019
Spal
1-1
Genoa
Apr 2019
Spal
1-1
Genoa
Dec 2018
Genoa
1-1
Spal
Oct 2017
Spal
1-0
Genoa
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.