Sunday 11 March 2018, 19:00
Luigi Ferraris
Full time
25%
31%
44%
Home win
25.5%
Draw
31.0%
Away win
43.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 25.5% | 3.93 | — | — |
| Draw | 31.0% | 3.22 | — | — |
| AC Milan | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86.8% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 13.2% | 7.56 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 37.6% | 2.66 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 34.6% | 2.89 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 15.8% | 6.31 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 6.1% | 16.51 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 93.9% | 1.06 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 41.6% | 2.40 | — | — |
| No | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa / Draw | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Genoa / AC Milan | 69.0% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Draw / AC Milan | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
13.2
|
14.4
|
9.2
|
3.8
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
| 1 |
10.0
|
13.9
|
8.0
|
3.2
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
4.7
|
5.7
|
3.5
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
1.3
|
1.6
|
1.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Genoa
1-2
AC Milan
Jan 2026
AC Milan
1-1
Genoa
May 2025
Genoa
1-2
AC Milan
Dec 2024
AC Milan
0-0
Genoa
May 2024
AC Milan
3-3
Genoa
Oct 2023
Genoa
0-1
AC Milan
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.