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Saturday 10 February 2018, 16:00 Stadio Paolo Mazza Full time
0–4
HT 0–1
26% 27% 47%
Home win
25.7%
Draw
27.4%
Away win
46.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Spal 25.7% 3.89
Draw 27.4% 3.66
AC Milan 46.9% 2.13

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.4% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.6% 11.68
Over 1.5 73.0% 1.37
Under 1.5 27.0% 3.70
Over 2.5 46.9% 2.13
Under 2.5 53.2% 1.88
Over 3.5 25.3% 3.96
Under 3.5 74.7% 1.34
Over 4.5 11.5% 8.67
Under 4.5 88.5% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.2% 1.95
No 48.8% 2.05

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Spal / Draw 53.1% 1.88
Spal / AC Milan 72.6% 1.38
Draw / AC Milan 74.3% 1.35

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.6
11.0
8.8
4.4
1.7
0.5
1
7.5
13.0
9.2
4.6
1.7
0.5
2
4.3
6.4
4.8
2.4
0.9
0.3
3
1.5
2.2
1.7
0.8
0.3
0.1
4
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Spal goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.