Saturday 10 February 2018, 16:00
Stadio Paolo Mazza
Full time
26%
27%
47%
Home win
25.7%
Draw
27.4%
Away win
46.9%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal | 25.7% | 3.89 | — | — |
| Draw | 27.4% | 3.66 | — | — |
| AC Milan | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.4% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.6% | 11.68 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 27.0% | 3.70 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 25.3% | 3.96 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 11.5% | 8.67 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 88.5% | 1.13 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| No | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spal / Draw | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Spal / AC Milan | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Draw / AC Milan | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.6
|
11.0
|
8.8
|
4.4
|
1.7
|
0.5
|
| 1 |
7.5
|
13.0
|
9.2
|
4.6
|
1.7
|
0.5
|
| 2 |
4.3
|
6.4
|
4.8
|
2.4
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
| 3 |
1.5
|
2.2
|
1.7
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.4
|
0.6
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jul 2020
Spal
2-2
AC Milan
Oct 2019
AC Milan
1-0
Spal
May 2019
Spal
2-3
AC Milan
Dec 2018
AC Milan
2-1
Spal
Sep 2017
AC Milan
2-0
Spal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.