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Saturday 6 January 2018, 16:00 Stadio Paolo Mazza Full time
2–5
HT 2–4
18% 21% 61%
Home win
18.2%
Draw
21.1%
Away win
60.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Spal 18.2% 5.49
Draw 21.1% 4.75
Lazio 60.7% 1.65

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.8% 1.04
Under 0.5 4.2% 23.76
Over 1.5 84.7% 1.18
Under 1.5 15.3% 6.56
Over 2.5 64.2% 1.56
Under 2.5 35.8% 2.79
Over 3.5 42.1% 2.38
Under 3.5 57.9% 1.73
Over 4.5 23.8% 4.20
Under 4.5 76.2% 1.31

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 60.5% 1.65
No 39.5% 2.53

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Spal / Draw 39.3% 2.55
Spal / Lazio 79.0% 1.27
Draw / Lazio 81.8% 1.22

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.2
7.4
8.7
6.3
3.4
1.5
1
3.6
9.5
9.8
7.1
3.9
1.7
2
2.3
5.1
5.5
4.0
2.2
1.0
3
0.9
1.9
2.1
1.5
0.8
0.4
4
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
Rows: Spal goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.