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Sunday 4 November 2018, 13:30 Stadio Olimpico Full time
4–1
HT 2–1
69% 19% 12%
Home win
68.8%
Draw
19.0%
Away win
12.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio 68.8% 1.45
Draw 19.0% 5.28
Spal 12.3% 8.14

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.3% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.7% 21.31
Over 1.5 83.0% 1.20
Under 1.5 17.0% 5.89
Over 2.5 61.5% 1.63
Under 2.5 38.5% 2.59
Over 3.5 39.2% 2.55
Under 3.5 60.8% 1.64
Over 4.5 21.5% 4.66
Under 4.5 78.5% 1.27

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.0% 1.89
No 47.0% 2.13

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio / Draw 87.7% 1.14
Lazio / Spal 81.0% 1.23
Draw / Spal 31.2% 3.20

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.7
3.2
1.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
9.1
8.9
3.7
1.1
0.2
0.0
2
11.0
9.7
4.2
1.2
0.3
0.0
3
8.4
7.4
3.3
1.0
0.2
0.0
4
4.9
4.3
1.9
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
2.2
2.0
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: Spal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.