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Sunday 7 October 2018, 16:00 Stadio Olimpico Full time
1–0
HT 1–0
54% 22% 24%
Home win
53.5%
Draw
22.3%
Away win
24.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio 53.5% 1.87
Draw 22.3% 4.49
Fiorentina 24.2% 4.13

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.2% 1.04
Under 0.5 3.8% 26.20
Over 1.5 86.1% 1.16
Under 1.5 13.9% 7.19
Over 2.5 66.4% 1.51
Under 2.5 33.6% 2.98
Over 3.5 44.6% 2.24
Under 3.5 55.4% 1.81
Over 4.5 26.0% 3.85
Under 4.5 74.0% 1.35

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 65.3% 1.53
No 34.7% 2.88

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio / Draw 75.8% 1.32
Lazio / Fiorentina 77.7% 1.29
Draw / Fiorentina 46.5% 2.15

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.8
3.9
3.0
1.3
0.5
0.1
1
6.2
9.7
6.2
2.8
0.9
0.3
2
7.0
9.5
6.4
2.9
1.0
0.3
3
4.8
6.5
4.4
2.0
0.7
0.2
4
2.5
3.4
2.3
1.0
0.3
0.1
5
1.0
1.4
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.