Skip to content
Sunday 23 September 2018, 16:00 Stadio Olimpico Full time
4–1
HT 2–0
68% 19% 13%
Home win
68.0%
Draw
19.4%
Away win
12.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio 68.0% 1.47
Draw 19.4% 5.16
Genoa 12.6% 7.95

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.1% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.9% 20.24
Over 1.5 82.3% 1.21
Under 1.5 17.7% 5.65
Over 2.5 60.3% 1.66
Under 2.5 39.7% 2.52
Over 3.5 37.9% 2.64
Under 3.5 62.1% 1.61
Over 4.5 20.5% 4.88
Under 4.5 79.5% 1.26

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 52.5% 1.90
No 47.5% 2.11

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Lazio / Draw 87.4% 1.14
Lazio / Genoa 80.6% 1.24
Draw / Genoa 32.0% 3.13

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.9
3.3
1.7
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
9.4
9.2
3.8
1.1
0.2
0.0
2
11.2
9.7
4.2
1.2
0.3
0.0
3
8.4
7.3
3.2
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
4.7
4.1
1.8
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
2.1
1.8
0.8
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: Genoa goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.