Sunday 16 September 2018, 16:00
Luigi Ferraris
Full time
40%
31%
28%
Home win
40.5%
Draw
31.5%
Away win
28.1%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
| Draw | 31.5% | 3.18 | — | — |
| Bologna | 28.1% | 3.56 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 86.7% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 13.3% | 7.50 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 37.8% | 2.65 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 34.4% | 2.91 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 15.7% | 6.37 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 84.3% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 6.0% | 16.71 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 94.0% | 1.06 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
| No | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa / Draw | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Genoa / Bologna | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Draw / Bologna | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
13.3
|
10.7
|
5.3
|
1.6
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
13.7
|
14.1
|
6.1
|
1.9
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
8.4
|
7.7
|
3.5
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
3.3
|
3.0
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.9
|
0.9
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Genoa
3-2
Bologna
Sep 2025
Bologna
2-1
Genoa
May 2025
Bologna
1-3
Genoa
Oct 2024
Genoa
2-2
Bologna
May 2024
Genoa
2-0
Bologna
Jan 2024
Bologna
1-1
Genoa
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.