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Sunday 6 May 2018, 16:00 Luigi Ferraris Full time
2–3
HT 0–1
27% 30% 42%
Home win
27.4%
Draw
30.4%
Away win
42.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa 27.4% 3.65
Draw 30.4% 3.29
Fiorentina 42.2% 2.37

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.0% 1.14
Under 0.5 12.0% 8.33
Over 1.5 65.1% 1.54
Under 1.5 34.9% 2.86
Over 2.5 37.4% 2.67
Under 2.5 62.6% 1.60
Over 3.5 17.8% 5.61
Under 3.5 82.2% 1.22
Over 4.5 7.1% 14.04
Under 4.5 92.9% 1.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 44.3% 2.26
No 55.7% 1.80

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa / Draw 57.8% 1.73
Genoa / Fiorentina 69.6% 1.44
Draw / Fiorentina 72.6% 1.38

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
12.0
13.1
8.6
3.6
1.1
0.3
1
9.8
14.0
8.2
3.4
1.1
0.3
2
5.0
6.2
3.9
1.6
0.5
0.1
3
1.6
2.0
1.2
0.5
0.2
0.0
4
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.