Saturday 14 April 2018, 19:00
Luigi Ferraris
Full time
43%
32%
24%
Home win
43.4%
Draw
32.1%
Away win
24.5%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 43.4% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Draw | 32.1% | 3.11 | — | — |
| Crotone | 24.5% | 4.09 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 85.1% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 14.9% | 6.69 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 41.1% | 2.44 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 31.1% | 3.22 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 13.5% | 7.42 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 86.5% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 4.9% | 20.56 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 95.1% | 1.05 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
| No | 61.5% | 1.62 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa / Draw | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Genoa / Crotone | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Draw / Crotone | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
14.9
|
10.5
|
4.5
|
1.2
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
15.6
|
13.9
|
5.2
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
9.5
|
7.6
|
3.0
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
3.7
|
2.9
|
1.2
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
1.1
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2021
Crotone
0-3
Genoa
Sep 2020
Genoa
4-1
Crotone
Nov 2017
Crotone
0-1
Genoa
Jan 2017
Genoa
2-2
Crotone
Aug 2016
Crotone
1-3
Genoa
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.