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Tuesday 3 April 2018, 19:30 Luigi Ferraris Full time
2–1
HT 0–0
41% 30% 29%
Home win
41.3%
Draw
30.1%
Away win
28.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa 41.3% 2.42
Draw 30.1% 3.32
Cagliari 28.6% 3.50

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.5% 1.13
Under 0.5 11.5% 8.71
Over 1.5 66.2% 1.51
Under 1.5 33.8% 2.96
Over 2.5 38.7% 2.58
Under 2.5 61.3% 1.63
Over 3.5 18.8% 5.32
Under 3.5 81.2% 1.23
Over 4.5 7.6% 13.08
Under 4.5 92.4% 1.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 45.6% 2.19
No 54.4% 1.84

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa / Draw 71.4% 1.40
Genoa / Cagliari 69.9% 1.43
Draw / Cagliari 58.7% 1.70

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.5
9.8
5.3
1.7
0.4
0.1
1
12.5
14.0
6.5
2.2
0.5
0.1
2
8.3
8.2
4.1
1.3
0.3
0.1
3
3.4
3.4
1.7
0.6
0.1
0.0
4
1.1
1.1
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.