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Sunday 29 April 2018, 16:00 Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia Full time
3–1
HT 2–0
58% 27% 15%
Home win
58.1%
Draw
26.8%
Away win
15.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atalanta 58.1% 1.72
Draw 26.8% 3.73
Genoa 15.1% 6.64

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 88.3% 1.13
Under 0.5 11.7% 8.53
Over 1.5 65.3% 1.53
Under 1.5 34.7% 2.88
Over 2.5 37.8% 2.65
Under 2.5 62.2% 1.61
Over 3.5 18.1% 5.52
Under 3.5 81.9% 1.22
Over 4.5 7.3% 13.75
Under 4.5 92.7% 1.08

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 38.6% 2.59
No 61.4% 1.63

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atalanta / Draw 84.9% 1.18
Atalanta / Genoa 73.2% 1.37
Draw / Genoa 41.9% 2.39

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.7
6.6
2.4
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
16.4
11.9
3.7
0.8
0.1
0.0
2
13.2
8.7
2.9
0.6
0.1
0.0
3
6.8
4.5
1.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
2.6
1.7
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Genoa goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.