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Tuesday 3 April 2018, 19:30 Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia Full time
1–2
HT 0–1
57% 23% 19%
Home win
57.2%
Draw
23.4%
Away win
19.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atalanta 57.2% 1.75
Draw 23.4% 4.27
Sampdoria 19.4% 5.16

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.0% 1.06
Under 0.5 6.0% 16.66
Over 1.5 79.5% 1.26
Under 1.5 20.5% 4.89
Over 2.5 55.9% 1.79
Under 2.5 44.1% 2.27
Over 3.5 33.6% 2.98
Under 3.5 66.4% 1.51
Over 4.5 17.2% 5.81
Under 4.5 82.8% 1.21

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 55.1% 1.81
No 44.9% 2.23

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Atalanta / Draw 80.6% 1.24
Atalanta / Sampdoria 76.6% 1.31
Draw / Sampdoria 42.8% 2.34

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.0
4.9
2.8
1.0
0.2
0.1
1
9.6
11.1
5.4
1.8
0.5
0.1
2
9.7
9.9
5.1
1.7
0.4
0.1
3
6.1
6.3
3.2
1.1
0.3
0.1
4
2.9
3.0
1.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
5
1.1
1.1
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Sampdoria goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.