Skip to content
Sunday 29 April 2018, 19:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi Full time
3–0
HT 1–0
21% 24% 55%
Home win
20.8%
Draw
24.5%
Away win
54.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina 20.8% 4.80
Draw 24.5% 4.09
Napoli 54.7% 1.83

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.4% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.6% 15.10
Over 1.5 77.9% 1.28
Under 1.5 22.1% 4.52
Over 2.5 53.5% 1.87
Under 2.5 46.5% 2.15
Over 3.5 31.2% 3.20
Under 3.5 68.8% 1.45
Over 4.5 15.5% 6.44
Under 4.5 84.5% 1.18

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 54.1% 1.85
No 45.9% 2.18

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina / Draw 45.3% 2.21
Fiorentina / Napoli 75.5% 1.32
Draw / Napoli 79.2% 1.26

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.6
10.0
9.6
5.7
2.6
0.9
1
5.5
11.6
9.8
5.9
2.6
0.9
2
3.1
5.6
5.1
3.0
1.4
0.5
3
1.1
1.9
1.7
1.0
0.5
0.2
4
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.