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Sunday 26 August 2018, 21:30 Luigi Ferraris Full time
2–1
HT 2–0
43% 32% 25%
Home win
43.2%
Draw
31.9%
Away win
24.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa 43.2% 2.32
Draw 31.9% 3.13
Empoli 24.9% 4.02

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 85.5% 1.17
Under 0.5 14.5% 6.88
Over 1.5 59.7% 1.67
Under 1.5 40.3% 2.48
Over 2.5 31.9% 3.14
Under 2.5 68.1% 1.47
Over 3.5 14.0% 7.15
Under 3.5 86.0% 1.16
Over 4.5 5.1% 19.54
Under 4.5 94.9% 1.05

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 39.2% 2.55
No 60.8% 1.65

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Genoa / Draw 75.1% 1.33
Genoa / Empoli 68.1% 1.47
Draw / Empoli 56.8% 1.76

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
14.5
10.4
4.6
1.2
0.3
0.0
1
15.3
13.9
5.4
1.5
0.3
0.0
2
9.4
7.6
3.1
0.9
0.2
0.0
3
3.6
3.0
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
1.1
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Empoli goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.