Saturday 15 September 2018, 19:00
Stadio San Paolo
Full time
66%
20%
14%
Home win
66.1%
Draw
19.9%
Away win
14.0%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Draw | 19.9% | 5.03 | — | — |
| Fiorentina | 14.0% | 7.13 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 95.3% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 4.7% | 21.16 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 83.0% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 17.0% | 5.89 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 38.6% | 2.59 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 39.1% | 2.56 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 21.4% | 4.67 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 78.6% | 1.27 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| No | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli / Draw | 86.0% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Napoli / Fiorentina | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Draw / Fiorentina | 33.9% | 2.95 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
4.7
|
3.4
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
8.8
|
9.3
|
4.1
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
10.4
|
9.8
|
4.6
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
7.8
|
7.3
|
3.4
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
4.3
|
4.1
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
1.9
|
1.8
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Napoli
2-1
Fiorentina
Sep 2025
Fiorentina
1-3
Napoli
Mar 2025
Napoli
2-1
Fiorentina
Jan 2025
Fiorentina
0-3
Napoli
May 2024
Fiorentina
2-2
Napoli
Oct 2023
Napoli
1-3
Fiorentina
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.