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Sunday 2 September 2018, 21:30 Luigi Ferraris Full time
3–0
HT 2–0
18% 22% 61%
Home win
17.5%
Draw
21.9%
Away win
60.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sampdoria 17.5% 5.71
Draw 21.9% 4.57
Napoli 60.6% 1.65

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.8% 1.05
Under 0.5 5.2% 19.29
Over 1.5 81.8% 1.22
Under 1.5 18.2% 5.50
Over 2.5 59.4% 1.68
Under 2.5 40.6% 2.46
Over 3.5 37.0% 2.70
Under 3.5 63.0% 1.59
Over 4.5 19.8% 5.05
Under 4.5 80.2% 1.25

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 56.4% 1.77
No 43.6% 2.30

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sampdoria / Draw 39.4% 2.54
Sampdoria / Napoli 78.1% 1.28
Draw / Napoli 82.5% 1.21

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.2
8.9
9.7
6.7
3.4
1.4
1
4.1
10.3
9.9
6.8
3.5
1.4
2
2.4
5.0
5.1
3.5
1.8
0.7
3
0.8
1.7
1.7
1.2
0.6
0.3
4
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Sampdoria goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.