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Sunday 29 April 2018, 16:00 Luigi Ferraris Full time
4–1
HT 3–0
57% 23% 21%
Home win
56.5%
Draw
22.9%
Away win
20.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sampdoria 56.5% 1.77
Draw 22.9% 4.37
Cagliari 20.6% 4.85

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.9% 1.05
Under 0.5 5.1% 19.56
Over 1.5 82.1% 1.22
Under 1.5 17.9% 5.59
Over 2.5 59.8% 1.67
Under 2.5 40.2% 2.49
Over 3.5 37.5% 2.67
Under 3.5 62.5% 1.60
Over 4.5 20.2% 4.96
Under 4.5 79.8% 1.25

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 58.7% 1.70
No 41.3% 2.42

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sampdoria / Draw 79.4% 1.26
Sampdoria / Cagliari 77.1% 1.30
Draw / Cagliari 43.5% 2.30

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.1
4.5
2.8
1.1
0.3
0.1
1
8.3
10.6
5.6
2.1
0.6
0.1
2
8.8
9.9
5.6
2.1
0.6
0.1
3
5.8
6.5
3.7
1.4
0.4
0.1
4
2.9
3.2
1.8
0.7
0.2
0.0
5
1.1
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Sampdoria goals. Columns: Cagliari goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.