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Saturday 25 August 2018, 21:30 Stadio San Paolo Full time
3–2
HT 0–1
61% 23% 16%
Home win
60.8%
Draw
23.0%
Away win
16.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli 60.8% 1.64
Draw 23.0% 4.34
AC Milan 16.1% 6.20

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 93.2% 1.07
Under 0.5 6.8% 14.60
Over 1.5 77.1% 1.30
Under 1.5 22.9% 4.37
Over 2.5 52.5% 1.91
Under 2.5 47.5% 2.10
Over 3.5 30.3% 3.30
Under 3.5 69.7% 1.43
Over 4.5 14.9% 6.73
Under 4.5 85.1% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 50.2% 1.99
No 49.8% 2.01

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Napoli / Draw 83.9% 1.19
Napoli / AC Milan 77.0% 1.30
Draw / AC Milan 39.2% 2.55

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.8
4.8
2.4
0.7
0.2
0.0
1
11.2
11.0
4.5
1.3
0.3
0.1
2
11.2
9.8
4.3
1.3
0.3
0.0
3
7.1
6.2
2.7
0.8
0.2
0.0
4
3.4
3.0
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
1.3
1.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.