Sunday 20 May 2018, 19:00
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Full time
44%
28%
29%
Home win
43.5%
Draw
27.9%
Away win
28.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Draw | 27.9% | 3.59 | — | — |
| Fiorentina | 28.6% | 3.50 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.3% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.7% | 11.53 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 72.7% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 27.3% | 3.67 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 46.5% | 2.15 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 25.0% | 4.00 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 11.4% | 8.80 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 88.6% | 1.13 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| No | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan / Draw | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| AC Milan / Fiorentina | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Draw / Fiorentina | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.7
|
8.0
|
4.9
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
10.5
|
13.3
|
7.0
|
2.6
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
8.1
|
8.9
|
5.0
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
3.8
|
4.2
|
2.4
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
1.4
|
1.5
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
Fiorentina
1-1
AC Milan
Oct 2025
AC Milan
2-1
Fiorentina
Apr 2025
AC Milan
2-2
Fiorentina
Oct 2024
Fiorentina
2-1
AC Milan
Mar 2024
Fiorentina
1-2
AC Milan
Nov 2023
AC Milan
1-0
Fiorentina
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.