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Sunday 30 September 2018, 16:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi Full time
40% 28% 32%
Home win
39.9%
Draw
27.7%
Away win
32.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina 39.9% 2.51
Draw 27.7% 3.61
Atalanta 32.4% 3.09

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.9% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.1% 12.37
Over 1.5 74.3% 1.35
Under 1.5 25.7% 3.88
Over 2.5 48.5% 2.06
Under 2.5 51.5% 1.94
Over 3.5 26.7% 3.75
Under 3.5 73.3% 1.36
Over 4.5 12.4% 8.04
Under 4.5 87.6% 1.14

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 53.8% 1.86
No 46.2% 2.16

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina / Draw 67.6% 1.48
Fiorentina / Atalanta 72.3% 1.38
Draw / Atalanta 60.1% 1.66

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.1
8.2
5.5
2.3
0.7
0.2
1
9.4
13.2
7.6
3.1
1.0
0.2
2
7.0
8.6
5.3
2.2
0.7
0.2
3
3.3
4.0
2.4
1.0
0.3
0.1
4
1.1
1.4
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Atalanta goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.