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Saturday 22 September 2018, 19:00 Stadio Artemio Franchi Full time
3–0
HT 2–0
55% 26% 20%
Home win
54.6%
Draw
25.8%
Away win
19.6%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina 54.6% 1.83
Draw 25.8% 3.87
Spal 19.6% 5.10

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 91.5% 1.09
Under 0.5 8.5% 11.78
Over 1.5 73.0% 1.37
Under 1.5 27.0% 3.70
Over 2.5 46.9% 2.13
Under 2.5 53.1% 1.88
Over 3.5 25.3% 3.95
Under 3.5 74.7% 1.34
Over 4.5 11.6% 8.64
Under 4.5 88.4% 1.13

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 48.6% 2.06
No 51.4% 1.94

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina / Draw 80.4% 1.24
Fiorentina / Spal 74.2% 1.35
Draw / Spal 45.4% 2.20

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.5
6.3
3.1
0.9
0.2
0.0
1
12.2
12.3
5.2
1.5
0.3
0.1
2
10.7
9.6
4.3
1.3
0.3
0.1
3
5.9
5.3
2.4
0.7
0.2
0.0
4
2.4
2.2
1.0
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.8
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: Spal goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.