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Wednesday 19 September 2018, 20:00 Luigi Ferraris Full time
38% 26% 36%
Home win
38.0%
Draw
25.7%
Away win
36.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sampdoria 38.0% 2.63
Draw 25.7% 3.89
Fiorentina 36.3% 2.75

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 94.3% 1.06
Under 0.5 5.7% 17.47
Over 1.5 80.5% 1.24
Under 1.5 19.5% 5.14
Over 2.5 57.4% 1.74
Under 2.5 42.6% 2.35
Over 3.5 35.0% 2.86
Under 3.5 65.0% 1.54
Over 4.5 18.2% 5.48
Under 4.5 81.8% 1.22

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 60.8% 1.65
No 39.2% 2.55

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Sampdoria / Draw 63.7% 1.57
Sampdoria / Fiorentina 74.3% 1.35
Draw / Fiorentina 62.0% 1.61

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.7
6.8
5.5
2.7
1.0
0.3
1
7.0
11.9
8.3
4.1
1.5
0.4
2
5.8
8.5
6.3
3.1
1.1
0.3
3
2.9
4.3
3.2
1.6
0.6
0.2
4
1.1
1.6
1.2
0.6
0.2
0.1
5
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: Sampdoria goals. Columns: Fiorentina goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.