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Sunday 23 September 2018, 19:00 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
2–2
HT 1–0
41% 29% 31%
Home win
40.7%
Draw
28.6%
Away win
30.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 40.7% 2.46
Draw 28.6% 3.50
Atalanta 30.8% 3.25

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.7% 1.10
Under 0.5 9.3% 10.80
Over 1.5 71.3% 1.40
Under 1.5 28.7% 3.49
Over 2.5 44.8% 2.23
Under 2.5 55.2% 1.81
Over 3.5 23.5% 4.25
Under 3.5 76.5% 1.31
Over 4.5 10.4% 9.58
Under 4.5 89.6% 1.12

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 50.7% 1.97
No 49.3% 2.03

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 69.2% 1.44
AC Milan / Atalanta 71.4% 1.40
Draw / Atalanta 59.3% 1.69

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.3
8.8
5.4
2.0
0.6
0.1
1
10.6
13.6
7.2
2.7
0.8
0.2
2
7.6
8.6
4.8
1.8
0.5
0.1
3
3.4
3.8
2.2
0.8
0.2
0.1
4
1.1
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Atalanta goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.