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Friday 31 August 2018, 21:30 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
2–1
HT 1–0
28% 29% 43%
Home win
27.9%
Draw
28.6%
Away win
43.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 27.9% 3.58
Draw 28.6% 3.49
AS Roma 43.4% 2.30

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 90.3% 1.11
Under 0.5 9.7% 10.32
Over 1.5 70.3% 1.42
Under 1.5 29.7% 3.37
Over 2.5 43.5% 2.30
Under 2.5 56.5% 1.77
Over 3.5 22.5% 4.45
Under 3.5 77.5% 1.29
Over 4.5 9.8% 10.21
Under 4.5 90.2% 1.11

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 49.2% 2.03
No 50.8% 1.97

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 56.6% 1.77
AC Milan / AS Roma 71.4% 1.40
Draw / AS Roma 72.1% 1.39

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.7
11.4
8.4
3.8
1.3
0.4
1
8.6
13.6
8.8
4.0
1.4
0.4
2
4.9
6.7
4.6
2.1
0.7
0.2
3
1.7
2.3
1.6
0.7
0.3
0.1
4
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: AS Roma goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.