Friday 31 August 2018, 21:30
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Full time
28%
29%
43%
Home win
27.9%
Draw
28.6%
Away win
43.4%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 27.9% | 3.58 | — | — |
| Draw | 28.6% | 3.49 | — | — |
| AS Roma | 43.4% | 2.30 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.7% | 10.32 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 29.7% | 3.37 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 22.5% | 4.45 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 9.8% | 10.21 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 90.2% | 1.11 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
| No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan / Draw | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| AC Milan / AS Roma | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Draw / AS Roma | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.7
|
11.4
|
8.4
|
3.8
|
1.3
|
0.4
|
| 1 |
8.6
|
13.6
|
8.8
|
4.0
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
| 2 |
4.9
|
6.7
|
4.6
|
2.1
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 3 |
1.7
|
2.3
|
1.6
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.4
|
0.6
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jan 2026
AS Roma
1-1
AC Milan
Nov 2025
AC Milan
1-0
AS Roma
May 2025
AS Roma
3-1
AC Milan
Dec 2024
AC Milan
1-1
AS Roma
Jan 2024
AC Milan
3-1
AS Roma
Sep 2023
AS Roma
1-2
AC Milan
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.