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Sunday 16 September 2018, 21:30 Sardegna Arena Full time
1–1
HT 1–0
23% 26% 51%
Home win
23.0%
Draw
26.0%
Away win
50.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Cagliari 23.0% 4.34
Draw 26.0% 3.84
AC Milan 50.9% 1.96

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.3% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.7% 13.05
Over 1.5 75.2% 1.33
Under 1.5 24.8% 4.03
Over 2.5 49.8% 2.01
Under 2.5 50.2% 1.99
Over 3.5 27.8% 3.60
Under 3.5 72.2% 1.39
Over 4.5 13.2% 7.58
Under 4.5 86.8% 1.15

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 52.4% 1.91
No 47.6% 2.10

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Cagliari / Draw 49.1% 2.04
Cagliari / AC Milan 74.0% 1.35
Draw / AC Milan 77.0% 1.30

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.7
10.7
9.3
5.1
2.1
0.7
1
6.4
12.4
9.6
5.2
2.1
0.7
2
3.7
6.0
4.9
2.7
1.1
0.4
3
1.3
2.1
1.7
0.9
0.4
0.1
4
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Cagliari goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.