Monday 1 October 2018, 21:30
Luigi Ferraris
Full time
52%
26%
21%
Home win
52.3%
Draw
26.5%
Away win
21.3%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Draw | 26.5% | 3.78 | — | — |
| Spal | 21.3% | 4.70 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.3% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.7% | 11.55 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 27.4% | 3.66 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 46.5% | 2.15 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 24.9% | 4.01 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 11.3% | 8.83 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 88.7% | 1.13 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 49.1% | 2.04 | — | — |
| No | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sampdoria / Draw | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Sampdoria / Spal | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Draw / Spal | 47.7% | 2.09 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.7
|
6.7
|
3.5
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
12.0
|
12.6
|
5.5
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 2 |
10.2
|
9.5
|
4.4
|
1.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
5.4
|
5.1
|
2.4
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
2.2
|
2.0
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.7
|
0.6
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jul 2020
Sampdoria
3-0
Spal
Nov 2019
Spal
0-1
Sampdoria
Mar 2019
Spal
1-2
Sampdoria
May 2018
Spal
3-1
Sampdoria
Dec 2017
Sampdoria
2-0
Spal
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.