Wednesday 20 September 2017, 21:45
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza
Full time
56%
26%
17%
Home win
56.4%
Draw
26.1%
Away win
17.5%
Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Draw | 26.1% | 3.83 | — | — |
| Spal | 17.5% | 5.73 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.7% | 10.32 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 30.0% | 3.33 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 43.2% | 2.31 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 22.3% | 4.49 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 9.7% | 10.33 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 90.3% | 1.11 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
| No | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan / Draw | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| AC Milan / Spal | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Draw / Spal | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.7
|
6.4
|
2.8
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
13.9
|
12.2
|
4.5
|
1.2
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
11.8
|
9.3
|
3.7
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
6.4
|
5.0
|
2.0
|
0.5
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
2.6
|
2.0
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Jul 2020
Spal
2-2
AC Milan
Oct 2019
AC Milan
1-0
Spal
May 2019
Spal
2-3
AC Milan
Dec 2018
AC Milan
2-1
Spal
Feb 2018
Spal
0-4
AC Milan
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.