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Saturday 30 December 2017, 13:30 Stadio Artemio Franchi Full time
45% 27% 28%
Home win
45.2%
Draw
26.5%
Away win
28.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina 45.2% 2.21
Draw 26.5% 3.77
AC Milan 28.2% 3.54

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.8% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.2% 13.89
Over 1.5 76.5% 1.31
Under 1.5 23.5% 4.25
Over 2.5 51.5% 1.94
Under 2.5 48.5% 2.06
Over 3.5 29.4% 3.40
Under 3.5 70.6% 1.42
Over 4.5 14.3% 7.02
Under 4.5 85.7% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 55.4% 1.81
No 44.6% 2.24

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Fiorentina / Draw 71.8% 1.39
Fiorentina / AC Milan 73.5% 1.36
Draw / AC Milan 54.8% 1.83

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.2
6.9
4.5
1.8
0.5
0.1
1
9.4
12.6
7.0
2.8
0.8
0.2
2
7.8
9.3
5.5
2.2
0.6
0.2
3
4.1
4.8
2.8
1.1
0.3
0.1
4
1.6
1.9
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Fiorentina goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.