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Sunday 28 January 2018, 19:00 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza Full time
2–1
HT 2–1
31% 24% 45%
Home win
30.8%
Draw
24.2%
Away win
45.0%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan 30.8% 3.25
Draw 24.2% 4.13
Lazio 45.0% 2.22

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.4% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.6% 21.89
Over 1.5 83.9% 1.19
Under 1.5 16.1% 6.20
Over 2.5 62.6% 1.60
Under 2.5 37.4% 2.68
Over 3.5 40.4% 2.47
Under 3.5 59.6% 1.68
Over 4.5 22.5% 4.45
Under 4.5 77.5% 1.29

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 64.2% 1.56
No 35.8% 2.80

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
AC Milan / Draw 55.0% 1.82
AC Milan / Lazio 75.8% 1.32
Draw / Lazio 69.2% 1.45

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.6
6.4
6.3
3.7
1.7
0.6
1
5.1
10.8
9.1
5.4
2.4
0.9
2
4.1
7.4
6.6
3.9
1.7
0.6
3
2.0
3.6
3.2
1.9
0.8
0.3
4
0.7
1.3
1.1
0.7
0.3
0.1
5
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.