Skip to content
Saturday 17 December 2016, 16:30 Opel Arena Full time
65% 20% 15%
Home win
65.1%
Draw
19.7%
Away win
15.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
FSV Mainz 05 65.1% 1.54
Draw 19.7% 5.07
Hamburger SV 15.2% 6.58

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.9% 1.04
Under 0.5 4.1% 24.47
Over 1.5 85.0% 1.18
Under 1.5 15.0% 6.68
Over 2.5 64.7% 1.55
Under 2.5 35.3% 2.83
Over 3.5 42.6% 2.35
Under 3.5 57.4% 1.74
Over 4.5 24.3% 4.12
Under 4.5 75.7% 1.32

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 58.5% 1.71
No 41.5% 2.41

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
FSV Mainz 05 / Draw 84.8% 1.18
FSV Mainz 05 / Hamburger SV 80.3% 1.25
Draw / Hamburger SV 34.9% 2.86

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.1
3.2
1.9
0.7
0.2
0.0
1
7.7
9.0
4.4
1.5
0.4
0.1
2
9.4
9.8
5.1
1.7
0.5
0.1
3
7.2
7.5
3.9
1.3
0.3
0.1
4
4.1
4.3
2.2
0.8
0.2
0.0
5
1.9
2.0
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
Rows: FSV Mainz 05 goals. Columns: Hamburger SV goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.