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Sunday 27 November 2016, 18:30 Olympiastadion Full time
63% 21% 17%
Home win
62.7%
Draw
20.6%
Away win
16.7%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Hertha Berlin 62.7% 1.59
Draw 20.6% 4.86
FSV Mainz 05 16.7% 6.00

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.7% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.3% 23.17
Over 1.5 84.4% 1.19
Under 1.5 15.6% 6.40
Over 2.5 63.6% 1.57
Under 2.5 36.4% 2.74
Over 3.5 41.4% 2.41
Under 3.5 58.6% 1.71
Over 4.5 23.3% 4.29
Under 4.5 76.7% 1.30

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 58.9% 1.70
No 41.1% 2.43

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Hertha Berlin / Draw 83.3% 1.20
Hertha Berlin / FSV Mainz 05 79.4% 1.26
Draw / FSV Mainz 05 37.3% 2.68

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.3
3.5
2.1
0.8
0.2
0.0
1
7.8
9.4
4.7
1.7
0.4
0.1
2
9.2
9.8
5.2
1.9
0.5
0.1
3
6.8
7.2
3.9
1.4
0.4
0.1
4
3.8
4.0
2.1
0.8
0.2
0.0
5
1.7
1.8
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Hertha Berlin goals. Columns: FSV Mainz 05 goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.