Skip to content
Tuesday 4 April 2017, 21:00 Signal Iduna Park Full time
79% 14% 7%
Home win
79.0%
Draw
13.7%
Away win
7.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Borussia Dortmund 79.0% 1.27
Draw 13.7% 7.27
Hamburger SV 7.2% 13.86

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.9% 1.03
Under 0.5 3.1% 31.88
Over 1.5 87.6% 1.14
Under 1.5 12.4% 8.09
Over 2.5 69.5% 1.44
Under 2.5 30.6% 3.27
Over 3.5 48.1% 2.08
Under 3.5 51.9% 1.93
Over 4.5 29.1% 3.44
Under 4.5 70.9% 1.41

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 51.0% 1.96
No 49.0% 2.04

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Borussia Dortmund / Draw 92.8% 1.08
Borussia Dortmund / Hamburger SV 86.3% 1.16
Draw / Hamburger SV 21.0% 4.77

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.1
1.8
0.8
0.2
0.0
0.0
1
7.4
6.4
2.3
0.6
0.1
0.0
2
11.0
8.5
3.3
0.9
0.2
0.0
3
10.3
8.0
3.1
0.8
0.2
0.0
4
7.2
5.6
2.2
0.6
0.1
0.0
5
4.1
3.1
1.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals. Columns: Hamburger SV goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.