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Saturday 4 March 2017, 16:30 Signal Iduna Park Full time
68% 18% 13%
Home win
68.5%
Draw
18.1%
Away win
13.4%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Borussia Dortmund 68.5% 1.46
Draw 18.1% 5.53
Bayer Leverkusen 13.4% 7.44

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 96.5% 1.04
Under 0.5 3.5% 28.96
Over 1.5 87.0% 1.15
Under 1.5 13.0% 7.67
Over 2.5 68.1% 1.47
Under 2.5 31.9% 3.13
Over 3.5 46.5% 2.15
Under 3.5 53.5% 1.87
Over 4.5 27.6% 3.62
Under 4.5 72.4% 1.38

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 59.4% 1.68
No 40.6% 2.47

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Borussia Dortmund / Draw 86.6% 1.16
Borussia Dortmund / Bayer Leverkusen 81.9% 1.22
Draw / Bayer Leverkusen 31.5% 3.17

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.5
2.6
1.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
1
7.0
8.1
4.0
1.4
0.4
0.1
2
9.2
9.5
4.9
1.7
0.4
0.1
3
7.6
7.8
4.0
1.4
0.4
0.1
4
4.7
4.8
2.5
0.9
0.2
0.0
5
2.3
2.4
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
Rows: Borussia Dortmund goals. Columns: Bayer Leverkusen goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.