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Saturday 11 February 2017, 21:00 Stadium Municipal Full time
4–1
HT 2–0
49% 30% 20%
Home win
49.3%
Draw
30.5%
Away win
20.2%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Toulouse 49.3% 2.03
Draw 30.5% 3.28
Bastia 20.2% 4.95

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 86.0% 1.16
Under 0.5 14.0% 7.14
Over 1.5 60.7% 1.65
Under 1.5 39.3% 2.55
Over 2.5 32.9% 3.04
Under 2.5 67.1% 1.49
Over 3.5 14.7% 6.81
Under 3.5 85.3% 1.17
Over 4.5 5.5% 18.32
Under 4.5 94.5% 1.06

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 38.2% 2.61
No 61.8% 1.62

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Toulouse / Draw 79.8% 1.25
Toulouse / Bastia 69.5% 1.44
Draw / Bastia 50.7% 1.97

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
14.0
8.9
3.5
0.8
0.2
0.0
1
16.4
13.2
4.5
1.1
0.2
0.0
2
11.1
8.1
2.9
0.7
0.1
0.0
3
4.8
3.5
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
1.6
1.1
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Toulouse goals. Columns: Bastia goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.