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Sunday 11 December 2016, 16:15 St. Mary's Stadium Full time
38% 37% 24%
Home win
38.3%
Draw
37.2%
Away win
24.5%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton 38.3% 2.61
Draw 37.2% 2.69
Middlesbrough 24.5% 4.08

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 77.9% 1.28
Under 0.5 22.1% 4.52
Over 1.5 46.4% 2.16
Under 1.5 53.6% 1.87
Over 2.5 20.2% 4.95
Under 2.5 79.8% 1.25
Over 3.5 7.1% 14.05
Under 3.5 92.9% 1.08
Over 4.5 2.1% 48.38
Under 4.5 97.9% 1.02

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 29.0% 3.45
No 71.0% 1.41

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Southampton / Draw 75.5% 1.32
Southampton / Middlesbrough 62.8% 1.59
Draw / Middlesbrough 61.7% 1.62

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
22.1
13.2
4.5
1.0
0.2
0.0
1
18.3
13.2
4.0
0.9
0.1
0.0
2
8.5
5.5
1.8
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
2.5
1.6
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0
4
0.6
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
5
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: Middlesbrough goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.