Sunday 30 October 2016, 18:00
St. Mary's Stadium
Full time
35%
31%
34%
Home win
35.3%
Draw
30.6%
Away win
34.1%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 35.3% | 2.83 | — | — |
| Draw | 30.6% | 3.27 | — | — |
| Chelsea | 34.1% | 2.93 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 88.3% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 11.7% | 8.55 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 34.2% | 2.92 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 38.2% | 2.62 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 18.4% | 5.43 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 81.6% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 7.4% | 13.45 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 92.6% | 1.08 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
| No | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton / Draw | 65.9% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Southampton / Chelsea | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Draw / Chelsea | 64.7% | 1.55 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
11.7
|
11.1
|
6.5
|
2.4
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
11.4
|
14.2
|
7.3
|
2.7
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
6.8
|
7.5
|
4.1
|
1.5
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
2.6
|
2.8
|
1.5
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.7
|
0.8
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2025
Chelsea
4-0
Southampton
Dec 2024
Southampton
1-5
Chelsea
Feb 2023
Chelsea
0-1
Southampton
Aug 2022
Southampton
2-1
Chelsea
Apr 2022
Southampton
0-6
Chelsea
Oct 2021
Chelsea
3-1
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.