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Sunday 23 October 2016, 15:30 Etihad Stadium Full time
59% 24% 17%
Home win
58.7%
Draw
23.9%
Away win
17.3%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City 58.7% 1.70
Draw 23.9% 4.18
Southampton 17.3% 5.78

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.7% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.3% 13.68
Over 1.5 75.9% 1.32
Under 1.5 24.1% 4.15
Over 2.5 50.8% 1.97
Under 2.5 49.2% 2.03
Over 3.5 28.8% 3.48
Under 3.5 71.2% 1.40
Over 4.5 13.8% 7.23
Under 4.5 86.2% 1.16

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 50.0% 2.00
No 50.0% 2.00

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Manchester City / Draw 82.7% 1.21
Manchester City / Southampton 76.1% 1.31
Draw / Southampton 41.3% 2.42

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.3
5.3
2.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
1
11.5
11.4
4.8
1.4
0.3
0.1
2
11.0
9.8
4.4
1.3
0.3
0.1
3
6.7
6.0
2.6
0.8
0.2
0.0
4
3.1
2.7
1.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
1.1
1.0
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.