Sunday 16 October 2016, 18:00
St. Mary's Stadium
Full time
44%
35%
21%
Home win
43.9%
Draw
35.4%
Away win
20.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
| Draw | 35.4% | 2.82 | — | — |
| Burnley | 20.6% | 4.85 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 20.6% | 4.85 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 48.7% | 2.05 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 22.0% | 4.54 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 8.1% | 12.37 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 91.9% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 2.5% | 40.82 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 97.6% | 1.03 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 29.5% | 3.39 | — | — |
| No | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton / Draw | 79.4% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Southampton / Burnley | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Draw / Burnley | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
20.6
|
11.2
|
3.6
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
19.4
|
12.8
|
3.6
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
10.2
|
6.1
|
1.8
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 3 |
3.5
|
2.1
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
0.9
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Apr 2022
Burnley
2-0
Southampton
Oct 2021
Southampton
2-2
Burnley
Apr 2021
Southampton
3-2
Burnley
Sep 2020
Burnley
0-1
Southampton
Feb 2020
Southampton
1-2
Burnley
Aug 2019
Burnley
3-0
Southampton
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.