Sunday 28 October 2018, 15:30
Turf Moor
Full time
20%
27%
54%
Home win
19.6%
Draw
26.8%
Away win
53.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 19.6% | 5.09 | — | — |
| Draw | 26.8% | 3.73 | — | — |
| Chelsea | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 90.4% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 9.6% | 10.43 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 70.3% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 29.7% | 3.37 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 43.6% | 2.29 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 22.6% | 4.43 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 9.9% | 10.14 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 90.1% | 1.11 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
| No | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley / Draw | 46.4% | 2.15 | — | — |
| Burnley / Chelsea | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Draw / Chelsea | 80.4% | 1.24 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
9.6
|
13.2
|
10.9
|
5.7
|
2.2
|
0.7
|
| 1 |
6.8
|
12.6
|
9.3
|
4.9
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
| 2 |
3.2
|
5.1
|
4.0
|
2.1
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
| 3 |
0.9
|
1.4
|
1.1
|
0.6
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Feb 2026
Chelsea
1-1
Burnley
Nov 2025
Burnley
0-2
Chelsea
Mar 2024
Chelsea
2-2
Burnley
Oct 2023
Burnley
1-4
Chelsea
Mar 2022
Burnley
0-4
Chelsea
Nov 2021
Chelsea
1-1
Burnley
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.