Skip to content
Saturday 1 October 2016, 17:00 Vicarage Road Full time
55% 25% 20%
Home win
55.4%
Draw
24.6%
Away win
20.0%

Provisional One or both sides have too little top-flight history for the model to have a settled opinion. These numbers will move as matches are played.

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford 55.4% 1.81
Draw 24.6% 4.06
Bournemouth 20.0% 5.00

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 92.9% 1.08
Under 0.5 7.1% 14.14
Over 1.5 76.7% 1.30
Under 1.5 23.3% 4.28
Over 2.5 51.8% 1.93
Under 2.5 48.2% 2.07
Over 3.5 29.7% 3.37
Under 3.5 70.3% 1.42
Over 4.5 14.4% 6.93
Under 4.5 85.6% 1.17

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 52.4% 1.91
No 47.6% 2.10

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Watford / Draw 80.0% 1.25
Watford / Bournemouth 75.4% 1.33
Draw / Bournemouth 44.6% 2.24

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.1
5.6
3.1
1.0
0.2
0.0
1
10.7
11.8
5.4
1.8
0.4
0.1
2
10.0
9.8
4.8
1.6
0.4
0.1
3
5.9
5.8
2.8
0.9
0.2
0.0
4
2.6
2.6
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
5
0.9
0.9
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.0
Rows: Watford goals. Columns: Bournemouth goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.