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Saturday 20 October 2018, 19:30 Estadio de la Cerámica Full time
25% 33% 42%
Home win
24.7%
Draw
33.1%
Away win
42.1%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Villarreal 24.7% 4.04
Draw 33.1% 3.02
Atletico Madrid 42.1% 2.37

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 83.7% 1.19
Under 0.5 16.3% 6.15
Over 1.5 56.4% 1.77
Under 1.5 43.6% 2.29
Over 2.5 28.7% 3.48
Under 2.5 71.3% 1.40
Over 3.5 11.9% 8.37
Under 3.5 88.1% 1.14
Over 4.5 4.1% 24.20
Under 4.5 95.9% 1.04

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 36.5% 2.74
No 63.5% 1.58

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Villarreal / Draw 57.9% 1.73
Villarreal / Atletico Madrid 66.9% 1.50
Draw / Atletico Madrid 75.3% 1.33

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
16.3
16.2
9.3
3.4
0.9
0.2
1
11.1
13.8
7.2
2.6
0.7
0.2
2
4.6
5.0
2.8
1.0
0.3
0.1
3
1.2
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Atletico Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.