Saturday 29 September 2018, 21:45
Santiago Bernabéu
Full time
43%
28%
30%
Home win
42.9%
Draw
27.6%
Away win
29.6%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
| Draw | 27.6% | 3.63 | — | — |
| Atletico Madrid | 29.6% | 3.38 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.8% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 8.2% | 12.25 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 26.0% | 3.85 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 48.2% | 2.08 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 26.4% | 3.79 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 12.3% | 8.15 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 87.7% | 1.14 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| No | 46.9% | 2.13 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid / Draw | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Real Madrid / Atletico Madrid | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Draw / Atletico Madrid | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
8.2
|
7.8
|
5.0
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 1 |
10.0
|
13.1
|
7.2
|
2.8
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
| 2 |
7.7
|
8.9
|
5.2
|
2.0
|
0.6
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
3.7
|
4.3
|
2.5
|
1.0
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 4 |
1.3
|
1.6
|
0.9
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
Mar 2026
Real Madrid
3-2
Atletico Madrid
Sep 2025
Atletico Madrid
5-2
Real Madrid
Feb 2025
Real Madrid
1-1
Atletico Madrid
Sep 2024
Atletico Madrid
1-1
Real Madrid
Feb 2024
Real Madrid
1-1
Atletico Madrid
Sep 2023
Atletico Madrid
3-1
Real Madrid
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.