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Saturday 15 September 2018, 21:45 San Mamés Full time
22% 23% 56%
Home win
21.5%
Draw
22.6%
Away win
55.9%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Athletic Club 21.5% 4.65
Draw 22.6% 4.43
Real Madrid 55.9% 1.79

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 95.4% 1.05
Under 0.5 4.6% 21.60
Over 1.5 83.6% 1.20
Under 1.5 16.4% 6.08
Over 2.5 62.2% 1.61
Under 2.5 37.8% 2.64
Over 3.5 39.9% 2.51
Under 3.5 60.1% 1.66
Over 4.5 22.1% 4.53
Under 4.5 77.9% 1.28

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 60.9% 1.64
No 39.1% 2.56

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Athletic Club / Draw 44.1% 2.27
Athletic Club / Real Madrid 77.4% 1.29
Draw / Real Madrid 78.5% 1.27

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.6
7.6
8.2
5.5
2.8
1.1
1
4.2
10.3
9.8
6.6
3.3
1.3
2
2.9
5.8
5.8
3.9
2.0
0.8
3
1.1
2.3
2.3
1.6
0.8
0.3
4
0.3
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.2
0.1
5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
Rows: Athletic Club goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.