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Saturday 12 May 2018, 21:45 Santiago Bernabéu Full time
79% 12% 9%
Home win
78.7%
Draw
12.5%
Away win
8.8%

Match result

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid 78.7% 1.27
Draw 12.5% 8.01
Celta Vigo 8.8% 11.41

Goals

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Over 0.5 98.5% 1.02
Under 0.5 1.5% 66.53
Over 1.5 93.6% 1.07
Under 1.5 6.4% 15.66
Over 2.5 81.4% 1.23
Under 2.5 18.6% 5.39
Over 3.5 64.0% 1.56
Under 3.5 36.0% 2.78
Over 4.5 44.8% 2.23
Under 4.5 55.2% 1.81

Both teams to score

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Yes 64.8% 1.54
No 35.2% 2.84

Double chance

Selection Model Fair odds Best offer Edge
Real Madrid / Draw 91.2% 1.10
Real Madrid / Celta Vigo 87.5% 1.14
Draw / Celta Vigo 21.3% 4.70

Every scoreline

Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.

Probability of each scoreline
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
1.5
1.1
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
1
3.8
4.8
2.5
0.9
0.3
0.1
2
6.7
7.4
4.1
1.5
0.4
0.1
3
7.3
8.1
4.5
1.7
0.5
0.1
4
6.0
6.6
3.7
1.4
0.4
0.1
5
3.9
4.4
2.4
0.9
0.3
0.1
Rows: Real Madrid goals. Columns: Celta Vigo goals. Values are percentages.

Form

Head to head

For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.