Wednesday 18 April 2018, 22:30
Santiago Bernabéu
Full time
72%
17%
11%
Home win
71.5%
Draw
17.3%
Away win
11.2%
Match result
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Draw | 17.3% | 5.78 | — | — |
| Athletic Club | 11.2% | 8.93 | — | — |
Goals
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 96.2% | 1.04 | — | — |
| Under 0.5 | 3.8% | 26.43 | — | — |
| Over 1.5 | 85.8% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Under 1.5 | 14.2% | 7.04 | — | — |
| Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Under 2.5 | 33.9% | 2.95 | — | — |
| Over 3.5 | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
| Under 3.5 | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Over 4.5 | 25.6% | 3.90 | — | — |
| Under 4.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
Both teams to score
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| No | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Double chance
| Selection | Model | Fair odds | Best offer | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid / Draw | 88.8% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Real Madrid / Athletic Club | 82.7% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Draw / Athletic Club | 28.5% | 3.51 | — | — |
Every scoreline
Each market above is a sum over this grid, which is why they can never contradict one another.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
3.8
|
2.6
|
1.4
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
| 1 |
7.9
|
8.0
|
3.4
|
1.0
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 2 |
10.4
|
9.4
|
4.3
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
| 3 |
8.6
|
7.8
|
3.6
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 4 |
5.4
|
4.9
|
2.2
|
0.7
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
| 5 |
2.7
|
2.4
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
Form
Head to head
May 2026
Real Madrid
4-2
Athletic Club
Dec 2025
Athletic Club
0-3
Real Madrid
Apr 2025
Real Madrid
1-0
Athletic Club
Dec 2024
Athletic Club
2-1
Real Madrid
Mar 2024
Real Madrid
2-0
Athletic Club
Aug 2023
Athletic Club
0-2
Real Madrid
For context only — the model does not use head-to-head history. Past meetings mostly record squads that no longer exist.